What It Takes to Win a Nobel Peace Prize
- Alfred Nobel’s will says the prize should go to “the person who shall have done the most or the best to advance fellowship among nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies, or for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.”
- Valid nominators are limited: heads of state, Nobel laureates, certain government officials, professors in certain fields, etc. One cannot nominate oneself.
- The Nobel Committee (in Norway) tends to favor long-term, multilateral, sustained efforts toward peace, rather than short-term diplomatic wins or gestures.
- The committee avoids overt political lobbying and tries to remain independent. Strong self-promotion often does not help.
What Trump Has That Could Work in His Favor
Here are some of the claims / nominations / actions that his supporters point to:
- He has been nominated multiple times for the Peace Prize, including by U.S. Rep. Claudia Tenney for his role in the Abraham Accords (2020) normalizing relations between Israel and some Arab states.
- He claims to have “ended seven wars” and suggests that his diplomacy in several conflicts (or threats of intervention, or multilateral pressure) could count.
- There is also public support in some international quarters: for example, Taiwan’s president said that if Trump convinces China to renounce force against Taiwan, he deserves the Nobel Prize.
So there is a basis for being considered — nominations, diplomatic claims, and international attention.
What Likely Works Against Him
These are the arguments experts are making for why it’s unlikely Trump will win — or at least why his chances are seen as slim:
- Sustainability: Experts say many of Trump’s peace-oriented claims are short-term, or not clearly tied to resolving root causes of conflict. The Washington Post+1
- Multilateral cooperation: The Nobel Committee tends to value cooperative international action, institutions, treaties, and mechanisms that build long-lasting peace. Critics say Trump’s actions (e.g. withdrawing from international agreements, criticism of institutions) run counter to that. www.ndtv.com+1
- Public lobbying / self-promotion: Many experts view Trump’s open statements about deserving the Prize, his campaign to be nominated, as potentially harmful rather than helpful. The Nobel Committee does not like being seen as politicized. www.ndtv.com+1
- Timing / nomination deadlines: Some of the nominations in his favor have reportedly missed deadlines. For example, Netanyahu and Pakistan’s nominations came after the February 1 deadline for 2025. The Washington Post+1
- Conflict in policy & reputation: There are parts of his record (foreign policy controversies, climate agreements, aid cuts) which many experts think are out of step with what the Nobel Committee traditionally rewards. www.ndtv.com+1
How He Could Win — What Would Need to Happen
If Trump wanted to maximize his chances, here are what experts suggest would have to happen / be clearly demonstrated:
- Successfully broker or force a durable peace agreement or truce in a major conflict — especially one that resolves long-standing issues (for example, Ukraine, Gaza, or between adversarial nations).
- Demonstrate not only that conflict has stopped, but that there is peaceful, stable cooperation afterward — e.g. diplomatic ties, institutional reconciliation, easing of tensions.
- Work in or support multilateral institutions / agreements (e.g. re-engaging with climate treaties, health organizations, cooperation with international bodies).
- Avoid public self-promotion; let the nominations and the diplomatic actions speak for themselves.
- Ensure the nomination is valid (by recognized nominator, submitted on time) and ensure his role is credible in the view of neutral observers.
What Experts Say About His Odds
Nobel watchers and historians generally believe his chance of winning in 2025 is quite low. www.ndtv.com+2The Washington Post+2
Some say his actions could disqualify him in practice, or at least place him out of alignment with what the Nobel Committee usually considers. www.ndtv.com+1
Others note that surprising or controversial laureates have happened in the past (e.g. Barack Obama got it early in his presidency, Kissinger did while in office during controversial periods). So while the odds are not zero, they are considered long. The Irish Times+1
Why It Matters — Social / Political Significance
- The discussion reveals how peace is valued not just in ending war, but in long-term diplomacy, cooperation, international institutions, and climate and humanitarian concerns.
- It highlights the interplay between public image, diplomacy, and recognition: how much does what people say count versus what is done.
- It shapes expectations for U.S. foreign policy: if leaders believe recognition (like Nobel) hinges on certain actions, that can shift priorities.
- It raises questions about political theater vs genuine peace efforts: are deals symbolic, short-lived, or real?
- Public and international perception matters: even being nominated for a Peace Prize confers prestige — so this becomes part of soft power, legitimacy, and leader branding.
Bottom Line
Yes — on paper, Donald Trump can win a Nobel Peace Prize. He meets some of the formal criteria: he has valid nominations, he claims diplomatic achievements, and the Peace Prize criteria allow for a wide range of contributions to peace.
But realistically, the consensus among experts is that he is very unlikely to win, especially in 2025. His public promotion, mixed record, controversies, and what the Nobel Committee usually values make it a long shot.
Sources & Publication Info
- “Trump was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize before. Experts say he’s unlikely to win this year” — AP News / Washington Post, published October 3, 2025. The Washington Post
- “Why Nobel experts aren’t betting on Trump for this year’s Peace Prize” — Reuters, published September 25, 2025. www.ndtv.com+2Straits Times+2
