By Ben Johnson
On the 23rd June 2016, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union by a margin of 52% to 48%.
Some have argued that a leave vote would be to the detriment of the UK economy, whether that be through a tightening of cheap labour from the continent, the loss of so-called passporting rights for the Square Mile, or the red tape and bureaucracy that would be imposed on UK businesses if they were to leave the single market.
But what many people want to know is what has actually happened to the UK economy over the past twelve months?
One of the most interesting and regularly updated barometers for the British economy is house prices, as it tends to broadly correlate with other economic metrics such as GDP growth, economic sentiment, as well as immigration / emigration figures.
Because of this, in January 2017 the estate agent YOPA brought together a number of predictions from industry experts to determine where the housing market might end up by the end of the year. When all of these predictions were averaged out, it seemed likely that a 1.2% growth figure was to be expected. However, recently the picture has started to look remarkably different from those early forecasts…
Indeed, house prices this year have already increased by a rate of 3.8%, dramatically outpacing even the most bullish of the industry predictions made at the start of 2017. If this rate of increase continues then by December house prices may have increased by over 7%.
So what’s the take away from all of this?
It’s worth remembering that at least in a practical sense, nothing has actually changed regarding the UK’s membership of the EU. The country is still a member of the customs union, the single market, and all the other mechanisms which regulate and have an impact on the day-to-day lives of British citizens. Furthermore, the free movement of people, goods and services is still in full effect and will be until March 2019 – or even later if a transitional deal is agreed.
In short, the impact of Brexit may not be fully realised just yet. However, using house prices as a barometer for the wider economy could make for interesting reading over the coming months and years, so if you want to keep up to date with latest figures then you may want to check out and bookmark this Brexit house price tool.
