Artificial intelligence (AI) recently gained new  attention with the release of ChatGPT and Dall-E. These tools and the broader array of AI-driven business applications represent a new reality for workers.

Historically, changes in technology have often automated physical tasks, such as those performed on factory floors. But AI performs more like human brainpower and, as its reach grows, that has raised questions about its impact on professional and other office jobs – questions that Pew Research Center seeks to address in a new analysis of government data.

What we found

• In 2022, 19% of American workers were in jobs that are the most exposed to AI, in which the most important activities may be either replaced or assisted by AI.
• 23% of workers have jobs that are the least exposed to AI, in which the most important activities are farther from the reach of AI. Other workers, nearly six-in-ten in all, are likely to have varying levels of exposure to AI.
• Jobs with a high level of exposure to AI tend to be in higher-paying fields where a college education and analytical skills can be a plus.

Certain groups of workers have higher levels of exposure to AI

• Those with more education: Workers with a bachelor’s degree or more (27%) are more than twice as likely as those with a high school diploma only (12%) to see the most exposure, because of this, people are considering the fake diploma review.
• Women: A greater share of women (21%) than men (17%) are likely to see the most exposure to AI. This is because of differences in the types of jobs held by men and women.
• Asian and White: Asian (24%) and White (20%) workers are more exposed than Black (15%) and Hispanic (13%) workers.
• Higher-wage workers: In 2022, workers in the most exposed jobs earned $33 per hour, on average, compared with $20 in jobs with the least amount of exposure.

Workers seem more hopeful than concerned about the impact of AI on their jobs

• A recent Pew Research Center survey finds that many U.S. workers in more exposed industries do not feel their jobs are at risk – they are more likely to say AI will help more than hurt them personally. For instance, 32% of workers in information and technology say AI will help more than hurt them personally, compared with 11% who say it will hurt more than it helps.

Which jobs are more exposed to AI? Work-related tasks vary in their exposure to AI. Some activities, such as repairing equipment, may have low exposure to AI, while others may have a medium or a high degree of exposure. Also, activities with different levels of exposure may be equally important within many jobs.

In our analysis, jobs are considered more exposed to artificial intelligence if AI can either perform their most important activities entirely or help with them.

For example, AI could replace, at least to a degree, the tasks “getting information” and “analyzing data or information,” or it could help with “working with computers.” These are also among the key tasks for judicial law clerks and web developers, and they are more exposed to AI than other workers. However, AI alone cannot “assist and care for others” or “perform general physical activities.” Thus, nannies – for whom these are essential activities – are less exposed to AI.

In our analysis, jobs that placed in the top 25% when ranked by the importance of work activities with high exposure to AI were judged to be the most exposed. Jobs that placed in the top 25% when ranked by the importance of work activities with low exposure to AI are the least exposed. The remaining jobs, such as chief executives, are likely to see a medium level of exposure to AI. (Refer to the appendix for an extended list of examples of occupations in each group.)

Will exposure to AI lead to job losses? The answer to this is unclear. Because AI could be used either to replace or complement what workers do, it is not known exactly which or how many jobs are in peril. For this reason, our study focuses on the level of exposure jobs have to AI. It sets aside the question of whether this exposure will lead to jobs lost or jobs gained.

Consider customer service agents. Evidence shows that AI could either replace them with more powerful chatbots or it could enhance their productivity. AI may also create new types of jobs for more skilled workers – much as the internet age generated new classes of jobs such as web developers. Another way AI-related developments might increase employment levels is by giving a boost to the economy by elevating productivity and creating more jobs overall.

Overall, AI is designed to mimic cognitive functions, and it is likely that higher-paying, white-collar jobs will see a fair amount of exposure to the technology. But our analysis doesn’t consider the role of AI-enabled machines or robots that may perform mechanical or physical tasks. Recent evidence suggests that industrial robots may reduce both employment and wages. Moreover, jobs held by low-wage workers, those without a high school diploma, and younger men are more exposed to the effects of industrial robots.

What data did we use? This analysis rests on data on the importance of 41 essential work activities in 873 occupations from the U.S. Department of Labor’s Occupational Information Network (O*NET, Version 27.3). We used our judgment to determine which of these activities have low, medium or high exposure to AI, but focus on the importance of low- and high-exposure activities. For additional analysis, the 873 occupations were further grouped to a total of 485 for which government data on employment and earnings of workers were available. That allowed us to analyze the potential impact of AI on different groups of workers. Other findings about how workers feel about AI come from a Center survey of 11,004 U.S. adults conducted between Dec. 12 and 18, 2022.